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  • By Briain O'Dowd
  • In Blog
  • Posted 12/08/2022

The IEA has called it ‘the first truly global crisis in history,’ and it's hitting Europe disproportionately. Russian gas represents 30-45% of European gas demand and spending almost 100 million euros, so reducing reliance will have life-saving potential this winter.

With the growing threat that Russian gas will be unavailable this winter, LNG has emerged as the most readily available solution with an established global market and readily available gas infrastructure across Europe. As the transition fuel towards a greener future, LNG typically produces 40%-45% less carbon dioxide (CO2) than coal and 30-35% less than oil making it the low carbon fossil fuel.

With a rush for LNG across Europe, Floating Storage Regasification Units (FRSU) can be quicker to deploy than landside infrastructure, which is particularly appealing amid this geopolitical and economic backdrop. Understanding the feasibility of deployment is only the first step. The true challenges emerge when considering how to balance the constraint storage, variable offtake and variability in vessel call and parcel size – and in how to optimise annual demand planning. Many of these challenges can be identified an mitigated before the FRSU is operational.

FSRU demand planning is particularly complex right now

Managing and scaling FSRUs in this dynamic and uncertain environment involves major challenges. Besides fundamentals around ship scheduling and vessel/parcel size, operators need to account for variables like:

  • Equipment reliability
  • Planned and unplanned maintenance
  • Seasonal fluctuations, daylight restrictions and weather/tide patterns
  • Port and channel operations
  • Regasification rates
  • Supply contracts and gas send-out rates

There’s significant expense involved in getting it wrong. For example, if a vessel can’t offload its parcel, demurrage can escalate quickly, costing operators hundreds of thousands of dollars per day.

Predictive simulation simplifies annual demand plan optimisation

No spreadsheet can deal with this level of complexity, and that’s where predictive simulation adds real value. It models assets and dynamic processes, allowing you to analyse ‘what-if’ scenarios involving complicated variables – and in a risk-free way.

Lanner’s LNG Logistics Simulator makes this easy with an out-of-the-box solution. It’s based on 30 years experience working in the LNG industry, and the in-built algorithms help you optimise the annual demand plan for a given profile – considering all the variables and systems involved in operations.

Let’s look at an example.

Capacity planning, satisfied suppliers and targeted investments

These are 3 ways a major European LNG operator benefited from predictive simulation as it looked to attract new shippers.

They used the LNG Logistics Simulator to prove to suppliers that they could provide the required capacity. In fact, the modelling even demonstrated that there would be capacity above initial projections, allowing them to set contracts for 6% more.

Additionally, using the simulator, the team ran scenarios for different capacity expansion opportunities to determine which would deliver the best ROI. This helped them direct 165 million euros of capital investment in the most effective way. 

Predictive simulation can help you plan, scale and de-risk at this critical moment in the energy industry’s history. Contact us to learn more.


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Briain O’Dowd is the Director of Energy and Fuels at Royal HaskoningDHV. He helps clients to deliver complex projects in the maritime and energy sectors using leading Digital Twin technology from Lanner and Royal HaskoningDHV. To learn more and connect with Briain, find him on LinkedIn here, or contact him at Briain.ODowd@rhdhv.com.

Meet Briain at Gastech from 5-8 September, 2022. Click here to learn more.


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